"Montgomery tries to save Hodges."

German 20 AM Comments

Allied 20 AM Comments

In short, the Germans were successful in eliminating the five surrounded US units. More importantly, from a Wermacht perspective, Hodges and three other units were also surrounded. The clankity-clank of ugly 3rd Arm. Div Shermans heading south on snow covered roads is muffled but discernable over the din of wailing GIs as they flee my ubermen. Dietrich and Manteuffal are in conference as they debate the timing of sending forces against Bastogne. The retreating US units lure the Germans northwards and westwards but my pursuit will be a bit more measured.

I think Fraulein luck bailed me out that turn - I spent a good amount of time amassing 68 factors to go up against the 13 factors of John's two surround regiments near Eupen. That allowed me to ensure that that I'd get at least a 4-1(-2) result after applying the negative terrain shift of one column. And, as every BW player knows by now, 4-1(-1) is the threshold for 'guaranteeing' victory...

Too bad I couldn't add though - he actually had 14 factors thus reducing my odds to 3-1(-2) so I now actually faced the 1/6 shot of having *wasted* 68 combat factors this turn if a 6 (CA) result came up.

Luckily, the dice server looks out for fools and I rolled a 2 and got a D4 result anyway.

Time for some reflections on how the US finds itself in this precarious situation as of 20AM. The tale is told by the single most important statistic in this game: the Allied dead unit pile. Unfortunately I don't have the numbers for the end of each turn, but here's what I've got: 16PM: 5 elim Allies 17AM: 7 19AM: 13 19PM: 14 20AM: 19

After 17AM, the position was pretty grim for the Allies, with a real chance of a blow out had the bad results continued. 17PM was a flop for the Germans, and the opportunity passed. Then the Allies were in better shape then normal through the 18th and 19AM as far as casualties were concerned. So what happened?

The strategic error was overconfidence. The infusion of 18AM reinforcements (reaching the front on 19AM in the case of the paras) and the reasonable casualty list induced me to switch from trading space for units to the opposite, especially in the north. I fell victim to the classic danger of short term success -- thinking I could afford to take some chances and hold ground. This lead to the effort to blow 7 bridges and holding positions that were vulnerable to being surrounded on a DR2 or better. This is extremely dangerous as amply shown by the 19PM casualties and the 20AM situation.

On a tactical level, I failed to adequately analyze the weaknesses of my positions if long advances resulted. IISS Panzer Corps crashed into this line of somewhat exposed positions and Tom took full advantage of every opportunity.

The Allied player has to remember that there is a dry spell from 19AM to 22Am in reinforcements. More units arrive during this period, but not enough. I should have given more ground in the north and preserved more troops. Now I face an increasing emergency in unit shortage just as Tom pushes past the best defensible terrain in the center.

Finally, I made another classic error -- the Allied counterattack to save surrounded units. Unless its a sure thing, the net result of this effort is frequently to cause more Allies to be trapped. Prime example in this game: Hodges' last stand near Verviers, on a counterattack to save two units in 1705 which had no chance of success. I failed to note that Dietrich would simply order a stand fast, leaving my 1705 troops trapped and Hodges force vulnerable.

For 20AM, I've cobbled together a defense, but made no effort to save Hodges other than putting him back in supply. Tom has positioned Dietrich well, and there was no chance of freeing this group, even with the US 3rd Armored Division which arrived this turn. I used 3rd Armored to block two roads, in a position which should allow it to move on a road next turn. Stacking this division gives it a coordinated defense modifier and a powerful 24-factor stack.

The center takes advantage of the surrounded reduced paratroop regiment which limits German movement. Next turn will be a problem, however. Stay tuned.

Turn Navigator: [ December 16 AM ] [ December 16 PM ] [ December 17 AM ] [ December 17 PM ] [ December 18 AM ] [ December 18 PM ] [ December 19 AM ] [ December 19 PM ] [ December 20 AM ] [ December 20 PM ] [ December 21 AM ] [ December 21 PM ] [ December 22 AM ] [ December 22 PM ] [ December 23 AM ] [ December 23 PM ] [ December 24 AM ] [ December 26 AM ]

German Combat Notes:

3225: dr4-1=D3. 327 to 3426

3330: dr1. 1D3. 506r to 3629.

2715: dr1-2= -1 = D4. 9CCA to 3012.

2816: dr1 = 1D3. 505 elim (surrounded).

2311: dr2-1=1=1D1. 119 elim (surrounded).

1705: dr2-2=0=D4. 2/9 and 9/47 elim (surrounded).

2006: dr6-1=5=D2 187 elim (surrounded).

Moderator Comments:

Post German 20AM Comments - In the North, the Germans paused in their drive West to eliminate enclaves of American resistance (shades of COL Hessler). This is no doubt a sound strategy as long as the pause does not extend past a single turn. As the German Player in the campaign game, I find myself sometimes hurried in an attempt to maintain progress in a westerly direction. In other words, I would have gambled on taking lower odds attacks against the surrounded American units while continuing the drive toward Liege. The Bitter Woods campaign game does not last as long as other Bulge games. It ends on 26 December when the initiative permanently passed from the Germans' hands. Time is definitely with the Allies. That aside, the Allied Player is deserving of some criticism for leaving himself in a position where a leader unit, in this case, Hodges, could be surrounded. I have serious concerns about the high number of Allied casualties at this point in the game. Third Armor is arriving none too soon.

Post Allied 20AM Comments - There is not much more I can contribute to John's excellent commentary. It is a sign of a good player when one immediately recognizes their mistake(s) rather than claiming "what the hell happened?" I am fascinated by the fact that my style of play differs from both Tom and John. I tend to trade bodies for "mother earth" and get ready to jump across the Meuse River when my losses approach "the magic number." John and I are playing a side campaign game and I'm playing as a fairly manic German - attacking nearly everywhere at much lower odds than Tom likes. I have been lucky so far but haven't made as much headway as I would like. At 19PM, I have to calm down, refocus, and start taking more concentrated attacks now that the IISS Pz Corps has arrived. Back to this game, John is showing just how strong a concentrated Allied Armored Division can be on the defense, i.e., sometimes "untouchable." If Bastogne continues to be ignored, it will certainly draw the GM's attention.

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